A snapshot of the developments shaping the UAE economy and the Dubai and Abu Dhabi property markets this week. The throughline is consistency: settled policy, deep liquidity, and a market maturing toward owner occupiers.
29 JUNE 2026 | MARKET INTELLIGENCE | K ESTATES ADVISORY
01
5.6% GDP FORECAST 2026
The Central Bank of the UAE has kept its 2026 growth forecast at 5.6%, holding steady against global headwinds. The expansion runs on two engines: hydrocarbon GDP rising 7.3% on higher OPEC+ quotas, and non oil activity up 5.1%, led by manufacturing, construction, and financial services.
The World Bank reads it much the same way, projecting 5% growth in 2026 and 5.1% in 2027.
3.65% BASE RATE
The CBUAE cut its base rate to 3.65% in December 2025 and has left it untouched through 2026. For buyers that means a settled environment for mortgage financing and a clearer path to plan around. Inflation stays low at 1.3% in 2025 and a forecast 1.8% in 2026, so purchasing power holds.
7th GLOBAL FINANCIAL CENTRES INDEX 39
Dubai has reached its highest ever placing, 7th, in the Global Financial Centres Index 39. It is a marker of the D33 economic agenda and the DIFC 2030 strategy doing their work. As global financial standing rises, so does the pull for multinational headquarters, and with them demand for premium real estate.
02
+6 NEW VISA ON ARRIVAL COUNTRIES
Indonesia, Vietnam, Thailand, the Philippines, Kenya, and South Africa now sit on the UAE visa on arrival list, with accompanying family members included. Each new nationality widens the pool of potential buyers, renters, and investors looking at the market.
His Highness Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid has announced a new federal body to oversee data, artificial intelligence, and digital government. It pushes the UAE further into smart city territory, one of the quieter but more durable drivers of demand for technology sector real estate.
03
AED 252B Q1 2026 TRANSACTIONS
Transaction value reached AED 252 billion in the first quarter of 2026, a 31% rise year on year, according to the Dubai Land Department. January carried AED 72.4 billion on its own, the strongest single month in the city's history and up 63% on the year.
The depth of liquidity here is as much the story as the headline number.
SOURCE: DUBAI LAND DEPARTMENT
AED 75B NEW LAUNCHES BY MAY
By the end of May, 250 projects had registered with the Dubai Land Department, carrying close to AED 75 billion in value across the first five months of the year. Supply is meeting the demand rather than lagging it.
SOURCE: DUBAI LAND DEPARTMENT
5 to 8% EXPECTED PRICE GROWTH 2026
Appreciation is easing to a forecast 5 to 8% this year, down from the 12 to 22% seen across 2024 to 2025. The price index settled near 231.51 in May, off its October 2025 peak of 235.03.
More telling is the composition: over 85% of early 2026 transactions came from owner occupiers rather than short term speculators. Some sellers are now adjusting too, with AED 2.36 billion in reductions across 3,292 listings opening real room to negotiate.
04
95% PROPERTY VIEWS VS BASELINE
Buyer interest is returning. Property views sit at 95% of baseline and unique buyers at 87%, while agent activity stays resilient at 102% of the 2026 baseline across the major platforms.
The momentum is concentrated. For apartments, Al Raha Beach, Yas Island, Saadiyat Island, and Al Reem Island are leading. For villas, the demand is in Al Shamkha, Al Reef, and Khalifa City.
16% FORECAST CAPITAL VALUE GROWTH
Residential capital values in Abu Dhabi are projected to accelerate by 16% this year, with apartments set to outpace villas on appreciation thanks to strong, varied supply. The market is tilting toward ownership: sales listings have grown from 26% to 39% of platform impressions against 2024.
Rents are forecast to rise 6% as well, a positive line for landlords and buy to let investors.
Considering a move in any of these markets? We advise privately.
Telephone +971 55 996 9994
Email [email protected]
Online www.kestates.ae
K ESTATES | CANNES | DUBAI | MONACO
WEEKLY MARKET BRIEFING | 29 JUNE 2026
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